Sunday, May 27, 2018

Cryptomarkets Manipulation: The Rise of Virtual Whales

The average crytpotraders work around opportunities based on predictions. The statistics-based prediction and prediction-based market moves are the very foundation of the average trader's strategy. This is about the trading based on the anticipation of market dynamics. "Market shaping" or "market manipulation' strategies pursue a totally different goal: Their purpose is to impact traders behavior at any given moment. Market shaping strategy is arguably based on a binary methodology that proceeds along the double helix of "Self-Fulfilling Prophecy" and "Self-Defeating Prophecy" principles. By adopting such strategies a market whale acts to promote or to prevent certain beliefs and hence behaviors in and by the average traders who move along a prediction-based line. The manipulator's goal is to dynamically shape the market reality to achieve certain results. The major transformation we are witnessing is the gradual transition from 'whale' (needing large funds and/or particular facilitation to operate) to 'virtual whale' (need for large funds replaced by applied 'Swarm Intelligence'). The emergence of 'virtual whale' extremely complicates the market intelligence and surveillance, and tends to blur the line between legal versus illegal trading practices. Stay tuned for more analysis on this topics.

Friday, May 25, 2018

Crypto World: Eppur Si Muove!

Interesting events buried under the daily politainment (political entertainment) lava coming out of Washington D.C. volcano:
  • The Marshall Islands formally launched its sovereign cryptocurrency 'SOV'. Although a tiny republic, this country is the first one that, without being under any foreign sanctions, is launching a sovereign cryptocurrency as its legal tender in parallel to the U.S. dollars. Besides the Venezuelan 'Petro', the success (or failure) of this experience offers a real-world model and an alternative solution for many countries either having serious difficulty with their own disgraced legal tender or are forced to use US dollar. 
  • The Argentine Banco Masvestas abandons for good SWIFT for its international money transfer in favor of a new solution based on Bitcoin. This is the first official bank putting an actual nail in the coffin of U.S. dominated SWIFT. Santander might be the next one. 
  • Russia has developed its own system for financial transfers that would protect it from a potential shutout of the SWIFT global transfer system in the event of harsher U.S. sanctions. Sources close to the Russian central bank said the Financial Communications Transfer System (SPFS) would be converted to a blockchain system by 2019.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Is Cryptocurrency Trading a Rigged Game?

Is cryptocurrency trading a rigged game? Can it survive the AI-powered *market shaping*? Can criminal probe and regulatory interventions make any difference? How does the rise of cryptobots impact the markets? and what is the relationship between cryptobots and P&D online groups?
During my most recent empirical studies, I realized that bots use two techniques to heavily impact the market according to a dynamically adjustable implementation plan:
a) HFT with a massive use of both fake buy and sell traffic as well as "wash trading" by single account holders, which inevitably require access to a very large fund and/or some significant "assistance" by the trading platform.
b) HFT with the same effects as above but implemented by using *swarm* approach that generates a gigantic *virtual cryptobot* or Virtual Whale without any large fund. The latter seems the result of a very close integration between P&D schemes and HFT. This integration is reinforced by a carefully elaborated media and social media tactics and strategies to *shape the markets*.
Here is the question:
Can a US Justice Department Criminal Probe into price manipulation or any regulatory intervention rein in this sophisticated "mechanism"? What do you think?