Friday, May 25, 2018

CRYPTOWORLD: EPPUR SI MUOVE!

Interesting events buried under the daily politainment (political entertainment) lava coming out of Washington D.C. volcano: - The Marshall Islands formally launched its sovereign cryptocurrency 'SOV'. Although a tiny republic, this country is the first one that, without being under any foreign sanctions, is launching a sovereign cryptocurrency as its legal tender in parallel to the U.S. dollars. Besides the Venezuelan 'Petro', the success (or failure) of this experience offers a real-world model and an alternative solution for many countries either having serious difficulty with their own disgraced legal tender or are forced to use US dollar. - The Argentine Banco Masvestas abandons for good SWIFT for its international money transfer in favor of a new solution based on Bitcoin. This is the first official bank putting an actual nail in the coffin of U.S.-dominated SWIFT. Santander might be the next one. - Russia has developed its own system for financial transfers that would protect it from a potential shutout of the SWIFT global transfer system in the event of harsher U.S. sanctions. Sources close to the Russian central bank said the Financial Communications Transfer System (SPFS) would be converted to a blockchain system by 2019.

Thursday, May 24, 2018

Is cryptocurrency trading a rigged game?

Is cryptocurrency trading a rigged game? Can it survive the AI-powered *market shaping*? Can criminal probe and regulatory interventions make any difference? How does the rise of cryptobots impact the markets? and what is the relationship between cryptobots and P&D online groups? During my most recent empirical studies, I realized that bots use two techniques to heavily impact the market according to a dynamically adjustable implementation plan:  a) HFT with a massive use of both fake buy and sell traffic as well as "wash trading" by single account holders, which inevitably require access to a very large fund and/or some significant "assistance" by the trading platform.  b) HFT with the same effects as above but implemented by using *swarm* approach that generates a gigantic *virtual cryptobot* or Virtual Whale without any large fund. The latter seems the result of a very close integration between P&D schemes and HFT. This integration is reinforced by a carefully elaborated media and social media tactics and strategies to *shape the markets*.  Here is the question: Can a US Justice Department Criminal Probe into price manipulation or any regulatory intervention rein in this sophisticated "mechanism"?  What do you think?

Friday, April 13, 2018

HOW TO UNDERSTAND CRYPTOMARKET TURBULENCES

There are 3 important market forces whose actions and interactions seem largely determining the cryptomarket rises and falls. They are as follows:  A) The generalized actions of *Cryptobots* that run arguably 60% to 80% of the transactions and the overall Order Book activities across all the major exchange platforms;  B) The *Pump or Dump Signals* generated by all size online P&D groups increasingly with 10s of 1000s of members recruited on a daily and/or permanent basis; C) The manipulative maneuvering of media outlets, social media peddlers, celebrity influencers all working as *bounty hunters* for the so-called *team investors* aka P&D online groups.  If we carefully keep track of these 3 factors including their combined interactions then we simply discover that both the traditional *technical analysis* and the analysis based on some hypothetical "intrinsic value" of this or that coin or token become largely irrelevant. 
What should be the guideline for the small trader in such a confusing context? I do not have any actual solution but I can recommend learning as much as possible about Buy and Sell Walls. 

Here is a good starting point: https://smartoptions.io/read-buy-sell-walls-crypto/

Friday, April 6, 2018

How to Get Rid of Eductional System Inefficiencies

Ways Blockchain can help: 1) Blockchain can help eliminate paper. 2) No more need for a central authority. 3) Educational institutions will save money. 4) Blockchain-based cryptocurrencies will simplify payment systems. All that helps to progressively get rid of Brick & Mortar educational system blackhole and move towards cost-effective universal e-learning.

Crypto Bullshit: Cryptocurrencies Markets Nonesense Analysis


During the last few months, I have been empirically observing the daily charts across the major exchanges as well as reading through almost all the cryptocurrency market comments and analysis (including the so-called technical ones) for a paper that I am preparing for an ongoing contract research project of one of my firm's clients. I have focused particularly on the analysis related to the current ups and downs of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. And now I am just shocked: With the exception of a very few cases, I have never ever read such an amount of nonsense, clueless analysis, and utter BS. To make things worse, in many cases, the titles of the articles have basically nothing to do with the articles' content while the titles themselves appear as clearly been chosen to manipulate the distracted readers. 
Here is my question: 

Aren't we entitled to have decent cryptocurrency market-related comments and analysis? 

While I understand that this is a new field and it takes time for analysts to truly learn things, I do not tolerate the preplanned deception and freaking charlatanry!

Cryptocurrencies & Looming Trade War

WILL BITCOIN AND ALTCOINS BECOME SOONER THAN EXPECTED THE ONLY OPTION BOTH FOR PEOPLE TO KEEP THEIR LIFE SAVINGS, AND COUNTRIES TO SALVAGE THEIR MONETARY RESERVES?


China holds $1.17 trillion of U.S. government debt. If there is a trade war, China could swiftly reduce its U.S. debt holdings as a political weapon against the Trump administration tariffs proposal. If that happens, the dollar could fall and other countries could follow suit and sell their holdings. At that point, cryptoassets (Bitcoin, Litecoin, etc. ) will become the only realistic alternative.

Saturday, March 31, 2018

Welcome to The New World of CRYPTOBOTS!

Assessing the percentage of cryptocurrency transactions made by cryptobots instead of humans is not an easy task. Cryptocurrencies are largely unregulated and businesses don’t have to report always their trading volumes. According to some informal estimates supported by my personal empirical observations, we may already put the rate of automatically-made trades between 60% and 80%. Keep in mind that factors such as the arbitrage opportunities still present across platforms, cryptocurrency’s minimal transaction fees, the non-stop trading, the ability to drastically decrease network latency and, last but not least, the rising number of cryptobot startups and coders-- are all helping to promote a fast-growing adoption of Autonomous-AI-powered brokerage Here is the relevant question: 
How does the rise of cryptobots impact the market? They would certainly help to flatten prices across the exchange platforms and promote stability. They may be instrumental to stop flash crashes in cryptomarkets— but they might also generate them both as a sort of "managed outcome" or as an unwanted combined result of the cryptobots interactions in a context plagued by 'structured pump & dump', ad hoc FUD and particularly hyped news events, etc. What is your take?